Last updated: 11/10/03
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Internet Trends

  1. Trust and security
    1. How do you know who really sent that email? How do you know it wasn't altered after they sent it? Are people able to deny what they said or did? How can you trust that your information will be treated the way you want it to?
      1. In "the real world" we have paper documents and signatures, together with a scientific and technological basis for verifying the authenticity
        1. This is constantly pushed by counterfeiters and strengthened by new knowledge.
        2. Notary Public will identify you as presenting normal ID papers
        3. These methods of authenticating documents is not foolproof or absolute. People can ignore safeguards and be vulnerable.
    2. There is a technology that accomplishes the same objectives for digital documents - Public Key / Private Key encryption
      1. Encryption = encoding, scrambling
      2. Two keys for encryption and decryption
        1. Public key you give to others, it is know to be yours, points to a company that says it is yours. Like a User Name
        2. Private key you keep secure, like a password
        3. If the private key is used to encode a message, only the public key can decrypt it, and vice versa
        4. Given the public key, a very large number can be found that, if factored, yields the private key and breaks the code. The strength of the code is measured by the size of the number that has to be factored -- so many bits. Current standard is 512 bits or about 154 digits. Factoring large numbers is a difficult operation. 512 bit security was just "broken" -- using thousands of computers in their spare time for several months, computer found one private key. Adding a single bit (513) would double the difficulty.
          1. At one time, U.S. only allowed export of 40 bit software, but more powerful software was freely available and being sold abroad. Now, export controls have been removed.
        5. Example sequence
          Status Message
          Pre-encryption Four score and seven years ago ...
          Encrypted AvI bR P OB5MkG-S MVwE
          Decrypted Four score and seven years ago ...
      3. To send an authenticated message, web page, etc., encrypt it with private key, others decrypt in with your public key. they know
        1. It came from you
        2. Content has not been changed
        3. On web browser, key in bottom left (Netscape) is whole, not broken. Web protocol is shttp:// or https://
          Broken key icon BROKENKEY.gif (1633 bytes) and fixed key icon FIXEDKEY.gif (1506 bytes)
          https URL https.gif (4230 bytes)
      4. To send a secure message, encrypt it with the receiver's public key
        1. Only the intended recipient can read the message
        2. The recipient knows the message was not changed on the way
      5. Messages can be doubly encrypted
      6. Digital Certificates are private key/public key pairs that come from a Certificate Authority (CA), which acts like a public notary. The public key contains the public key of the CA, and so tells your correspondent who vouches for your identity. Examples of CAs are Thawte, VeriSign (a subsidiary of Thawte) and Truste.
      7. Need to trust companies that issue keys, and those who originate information
        1. "Web of trust"
    3. If this technology is used, there is greater danger when the information is "on-site." A disgruntled employee is the worst security leak. Steps to security
      1. Access should be restricted. Those without a need to know should not know that the information exists, where it exists (computer, folder) or what the filename is.
      2. Information should be compartmentalized. Different types of information should be stored separately, so that if one is compromised, other classes will remain secure.
      3. Physical security. Access should be limited by User Name and Password. Passwords should meet standards and be changed regularly.
        1. Minimum of six characters
        2. No dictionary words or names and dates that can be found from biographical information, such as birthday, children's names
        3. Include some numbers.
        4. If stored on a computer, they should be encrypted.
      4. Information should be stored in an encrypted form. Not the norm now, but may be in the future, as companies start to get sued, and insurers have to pay the costs
      5. Backup off-site storage in case file is deleted, corrupted or damaged
      6. Do not use Social Security Numbers for ID number
    4. Recent trend towards regulation for spam, identity theft. Does Dyson's model of self-regulation work? She says that markets need regulation - why not the Internet? If private enterprise has failed to provide protection, is it time to try regulation?
  2. Transparency
    1. We all have ways of assessing the reliability and completeness of information in person. On the Internet? Tendency now is to give the benefit of the doubt until we find something to the contrary.
    2. Hidden information inhibits trust. Expectation of customers is that the company /organization / web site is what it says it is
    3. Reputation is easy to lose, hard to reconstruct - who knows who heard what broke the reputation
    4. "Electronic herd" will panic
      1. Insider trading -- information available to others but not to me
      2. Corruption -- decisions not being made on the business merits
      3. Unexplained movements in stock price
  3. Disintermediation
    1. Expectation: no intermediaries
      1. Retailers order direct from manufacturer without going through wholesalers
      2. Customers order direct ...
    2. Contrary to expectations, intermediaries are staying alive by servicing online retailers after the sale
  4. Convergence. Convergence generally means “things coming together.” It is widely expected to happen in the field of computers and computer communications. There are two aspects to this type of convergence:
    1. Hardware convergence. All of the various information appliances that we use are expected to converge to one or a few. This includes computer, PDA, Phones of all types, pagers, cameras, music systems and video systems. The devices that are analog now (telephone, TV, music) will become digital. It may be necessary to have a stationary device and another portable one, but it is widely expected that many devices will converge into one or a few, along with all of the many new devices that will undoubtedly be developed. Current examples:
      1. Cell phones with digital cameras and PDA functions
      2. Digital television in living room connected to computer DVD
      3. Computer with multimedia adapter and high-end speaker system replacing separate computer and music system
    2. Communications convergence. All forms of communications are expected to become digital and move to the Internet. This includes computer communications, music and TV. Current examples:
      1. Internet telephony – telephone sound signals carried over the Internet
      2. Satellite radio (digital)
      3. Digital TV
      4. Digital movies transmitted over the Internet
      5. Internet radio
  5. Power shift
    1. Communication power put in hands of end-user
      1. Competition is more easily accessible
        1. Only a mouse click away
      2. Can search for stores
      3. Can send messages to anyone connected to the Internet - also many services to find people
      4. Can easily and cheaply set up a web server to sell, inform, etc.
      5. There is no licensing authority
      6. There is no claim here that the Internet is a perfect communications medium for the individual. the claim is only that it gives more power to the individual, compared to earlier forms.
      7. For example, setting up a web server can cost $1,000 or less. Setting up a "brick and mortar" communications medium such as a newspaper, a TV station or a radio station costs $1,000,000 or more.
      8. Some people claim that big business will find a way to take over and control the Internet. This has been tried and so far it has failed. Customers will flee an ISP that does not give full access, for example. Since it is cheap and easy to become a small ISP, if this preference continues, big ISPs will have trouble if they try to restrict access. There are no guarantees, however.
      9. The user rates the supplier and communicates to other end users
        1. Students rating faculty on student web sites
        2. Consumers complaining on their own web sites about poor service (Dunkin' Donuts)
      10. Services that aggregate information about suppliers
        1. Web sites that compare airline ticket prices or mortgage interest rates
        2. Compare loan rates, help users fill out forms on line
    2. End users able to supply information themselves
      1. Personal web sites
      2. With "always on" comes fixed IP, ability to run server directly (some ISPs restrict this) or cheaply
    3. Credit cards Vs debit cards over the Internet. You have much more control and protection with a credit card. Your losses are limited, and your credit card company is almost forced to take your side in a dispute with a merchant, since you haven't paid them yet.
  6. Significance of previous stages and current trends in communication
    1. Speech. Universal (even some animals can use rudimentary speech), except for cases of injury or mutation. Allowed complex and detailed meaning to be communicated. Afterwards, messages get distorted by the limitations of human memory.
    2. Writing. Requires training or education and so when it first appeared was limited to relatively few people. Messages can persist accurately after the communicators have left. Beginning of history and formal education.
    3. Printing. Writing available for everyone who can read. Books available at much lower costs. Many more people become authors. Primarily one-way communication.
    4. Radio, Movies and Television. Generally, these do for speech, music and action what printing did for books; these become more widely available at lower cost. Primarily one-way communication.
    5. Current Internet. Lowers cost of low-speed communication even more than books or radio, and is in addition (or can be) two-way. There is some cost in setting up a server, but that is decreasing, and in many cases is free. There is also some cost associated with the writing (a computer or similar device), but the cost of publishing is much less. Will destroy many publishing businesses that do not adapt and develop a viable business model.
    6. Multimedia Internet (future). Will do for movies and television what the low-speed Internet is doing to publishing.